Limited Climate Change------Harmful Algae Blooms--------Deoxygenation of Water-------Methane-------Massive Climate Change-------MASSIVE EXTINCTION EVENT

The climate change we are currently experiencing is simply a trigger.

​The factors listed above all have their own story.  Each one can be clearly tracked and understood.  We have the science so that related modeling is possible, although not yet clearly defined.  The take home message however is that the climate change we are currently experiencing is simply a trigger.  The real hazard we face comes later.  

The same deoxygenation of water phenomenon has happened before, during Earth’s most extreme extinction event…the Great Permian Extinction, during which Earth’s atmospheric temperature increased by 10C and 96% of species were lost.  We are on this same extinction path now, only we are approaching it at a vastly faster rate than during the Permian.  Here’s a quick summary:

​Limited Climate Change….

​is happening now.  Earth’s atmospheric temperature has increased by 1.5C, primarily over the last 40 years.  This number is increasing, despite commitments from many nations to achieve their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to Greenhouse Gas reduction.  Today’s increase is primarily led by carbon dioxide.  Our modeling suggests that biogenic methane will replace carbon dioxide as the primary agent of climate change within several decades.

Harmful Algae Blooms…..

​result from the combination of slight temperature change and nutrient loading that results in nutrient impaired water.  Easily 80% of water contaminating nutrients are attributable to modern agriculture, but expanded human density contributes to nutrient impairment of water as well.  Today in the U.S. more than half of all fresh water is nutrient impaired, compared to 15% in 1972, when the first version of our Clean Water Act was passed.  The act did not address nutrient contamination of water, and today there are still no federal regulatory standards in place to limit agriculture’s massive contribution of nutrients into our watersheds.  In fact, the recent Trump administration dismantled Total Maximum Daily Load limits that had been slated to finally kick in and limit nutrient loading on a watershed basis.  

​Deoxygenation of Water

​results from the ultimate biodigestion of algae and other forms of annual aquatic vegetation.  Today nutrient impaired water generates more methane than any other source, half again more than from Oil and Gas.  It’s a little known fact that government controls most of these emissions.  In the U.S., the Army Corp. of Engineers and the Bureau of Reclamation are the two largest emitters of methane.  On a positive note, the current administration’s EPA has initiated partial methane monitoring of reservoirs.  

​Methane…..

​specifically biogenic methane,  occurs in sludge residue primarily from biodigestion of dead plant and algae residue.  Other organic material, like dead fish that result from deoxygenated water, further contribute to sludge buildup.  Anaerobic (without oxygen) methanogens subsist in sludge and generate methane instead of carbon dioxide which occurs in healthy aerobic waterways.  Healthy waterways sustain a lid of aerobic (with oxygen) methanotrophs that consume methane.  They represent a methane cap, and can reduce this form of biogenic methane emission by 80%.  

​Massive Climate Change…..

​may not be inevitable but is very likely unless immediate action occurs on a planetary basis.  It is clear that greenhouse gas must be mitigated wherever possible.  At the same time it is abundantly clear that mitigation of biogenic methane associated with nutrient impaired water, which results in an 8-fold increase in methane compared to healthy water, is an extremely effective  form of climate action that is available today.  By oxygenating benthic (bottom) zones of nutrient impaired water, methanotrophs that consume methane can be sustained in the top layers of sludge.  Two such oxygenation technologies are currently in the marketplace, and two additional benthic oxygenation systems are currently at testing stage.  Combined with new methane credit allowances provided in the recent Inflation Reduction Act, this critically important form of climate action is poised to advance.

​MASSIVE EXTINCTION EVENT…..

​is likely if we even approach the 10C increase that occurred during the Permian event.  But other factors, like the rise of extreme politics associated with climate change pressures could readily trigger other factors, like nuclear war.  As climate activist Al Gore noted recently, the current 1.5oC change has resulted in some three million climate refugees, and corresponding, related political extremism is linked to this.  

​POSITIVE, HOPEFUL DEVELOPMENTS TOO.  THESE INCLUDE:

​1.   Recent credible science journal papers have tracked lower methane emissions from thawing tundra than modeling suggested.  As frozen tundra thaws, so do latent methanotrophs.  Their consumption of methane locked previously locked in ice reduces methane volume by a sizable fraction, approaching the 80% number that oxygenation of benthic water targets.

2.   Nutrient impaired water transitions into extremely productive water when exposed to sufficient surface area and circulation/oxygenation.  A classic long term study in Houghton Lake, Michigan, and another in Shepherd, Montana associated with Fish Fry Lake, at Floating Island International’s headquarters, demonstrate this phenomenon.  Excess nutrients can be cycled into appropriate biota, while related biogenic methane can be mitigated or digested as aerobic methanotrophs are nurtured via optimal stewardship.  We are learning how to do this, and must now apply it to the vast inventory of nutrient impaired water across our planet.

3.  The great majority of nations are supporting Ukraine as it battles the insane ambitions of Putin, a despot, at best.  This is a political manifestation of unity that signals a potential for Earth to direct similar unity around climate action.  Note that India and China have sided with Putin, at least superficially.  This suggests that while a large fraction of humans are not fully cognizant of the dire implications associated with unity around climate action, many of us are.  India and China make up a huge fraction of human population however.  China controls more nutrient impaired reservoirs and paddy fields than any other nation, and India is famous for organic nutrient loading of water.  Consider that even human bodies are fed into waterways in India.  The vast preponderance of nation states however do recognize that unified purpose and action is our only option.

4.  Recent elections in Australia, Brazil and the U.S. are optimistic signals that extreme politicians fail in relatively short order.  But note that Donald Trump’s administration was able to set back Total Maximum Daily Load nutrient standards during the four years of his presidency.  Lay people must be appraised of the relationship between their votes and climate sustenance, and despite both disinformation and misinformation, accurate knowledge and awareness around empirical science tends to prevail.

5.  Movement and action by academia and youth is also hopeful.  I learned that Greta Thunberg was arrested recently at a coal mine protest in Germany.  At the same time, I note slow but progressive emergence of awareness associated with biogenic methane from nutrient impaired water at climate action labs at Yale, Berkeley and Stanford.  Individual researchers at Waterloo University in Toronto, at Yale and Montana State University’s Center for Biofilm Research and dozens of other research institutions around the world are now regularly publishing around this critical form of greenhouse gas.  It’s clear that while science is ahead of policy makers relative to biogenic methane, policy makers will eventually respond.

6.  The luxury of time.  Maybe.  We should have several decades to figure things out.  

7.  Innovation.  Today we can prevent a very high fraction of biogenic methane by oxygenating benthic water.  If new, very efficient benthic oxygenation technologies can be successfully commercialized this primary source of greenhouse gas can be mitigated cost effectively, especially in concert with the realistic methane prevention credits currently in place.

​As CEO of Floating Island International, where one of the benthic oxygenation technologies I reference is being tested, I know that active initiatives around methane monitoring and mitigation are underway and developing.  Demonstration projects are being quoted as I write this.  The commercial sector and a client base of everything from municipalities with nutrient impaired lakes within their jurisdiction, or wastewater lagoons that service ski hills, all are slowly recognizing that chemical treatment is not a viable option.  Chemical-free solutions around biogenic methane mitigation are developing into a new and large emerging industry.

​A reminder, in North America, the U.S. Government is the single largest emitter of biogenic methane.  Their leadership in accurate monitoring and substantive mitigation is fundamental, and will ultimately determine whether humans sustain through what is emerging as an unprecedented extinction event.

Bruce Kania
February 2023